Reshuffling the deck - a global power shift

12 October 2021

Sophia Lueneburg

(Image courtesy of Unsplash)

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of InQuire Media

In recent history, ascribing a sense of belonging for states was relatively easy, categorizing as east vs. west or developed vs. developing. Now, not only labels for countries and regions have changed, but nations have too. It is fair to say that the world we know today faces an identity crisis.

Recently, the global world order has been subjected to a wide array of disruptions. China has become harder and harder to ignore for other global players. The pandemic has exposed the protectionism of the Global North and their unwillingness for true global partnership. Deteriorating supply chains have brought Britain to its knees (or rather on its feet and out of fuel-less cars). Whether or not temporary measures will help long term to fix the supply problem remains open.

America has dropped the ball on global leadership with their drastically failed withdrawal from Afghanistan. Cracks have appeared within the ideas of the European Union, Britain without it, America’s war on terror or the Euro-American dream to stay on top of global economics. The leaders of world politics slowly but surely lose their grip on the mountain of global order. New players have better equipment, the faster routes, or simply less scruples than the old ones. [DE1] Not that the US or Europe were exclusively fair players, but recently more and more countries have relinquished their masks when it comes to upholding formerly professed international values and laws.

International power politics work similar to energy: It never disappears, it just shifts. Power is being redistributed. And with European countries remaining stuck in a pandemic state of caution and the US in free fall on the global power scale, the shift is already visible. The Economist wrote to the question if ‘China is already the world’s most dominant economy’ a simple ‘yes’.

But the tilt is not only within the realm of economics. Human Rights crises around China, like Hong Kong or the Uighurs, territorial disputes such as that over Taiwan, have mostly disappeared from public attention. This has also something to do with different crises being much closer to people outside of China, e.g. the pandemic or climate change. Nevertheless, new governments also make an entrance that are far from the idea of democracy. The takeover of the Taliban the military coup in Myanmar) , the assassination of Haiti’s President Jovenel Moïse, the suspension of parliament in Tunisia, to name a few.

It appears that not only do the former superpowers become less and less important, but so too does democracy . The most alarming aspect though is that the international community did not see the signs of what was coming. They have also been powerless in their reaction. And while one can say Myanmar or Afghanistan are far from home, the same cannot be said about Russia. Ukraine and Russia are still engaged in an active dispute over Crimea. Recent calls for a stop on the second gas-pipeline from Russia to Germany due to Russia’s defensive behavior have not been met. Gas is supposed to stream through it within the first weeks of October.

The Chinese new Silk Road has reached Germany. In Sri Lanka China has seized the port of Hambanthota which they financed on the island for 99 years after debts could not be paid. Montenegro’s is facing the same fate. The way alliances work has changed. Now either disturbingly one-sided manipulations and intimidation or general audacity has become a popular way to control resources or infrastructure.

Also smaller countries have shown an increased disrespect for the common international code of conduct and a surprising amount of nerve. The regime of Alexander Lukashenko, president of Belarus, has been anything but shy in silencing political opposition. In May a Ryanair flight was forced to land in the country on its way from Greece to Lithuania due to a doubtful bomb threat, to arrest a Belarusian journalist and dissident together with his girlfriend. During the 2021 Olympics a Belarusian athlete was forced to seek asylum after criticizing not her government but her coach. In Poland a member of Belarusian civil society was found dead in a park. It has not been concluded if it was a suicide or murder.

Belarus is a direct neighbor of EU-countries Lithuania and Latvia. But while Russia has made it clear on which side they stand, the EU has done little to seriously counteract Lukashenko’s behaviour. Having countries in such proximity to major global players acting fearlessly of international condemnation speaks for itself in regard to their power.

Leaders have realized by now that democracy and their place in the world is threatened. On her speech on the occasion of the German Day of Unity, 3 October, soon to leave Chancellor Merkel admitted that democracy is under attack. In February President Biden said the same for ‘American values’ but admitted that ‘American people are going to emerge from this better equipped to unite the world in fighting to defend democracy’. It is doubtful he would repeat this statement now.

Whether it is Germany, the US or Britain, leaders should accept the power drift in the international order. Now might be the time for them to return to the drawing board and figure out what the former winners of the global game really want to portray to the outside world, and whether they themselves live up to the standards they attempt to set for others. If governments continue to scramble for geopolitical power during a fading age, instead of repositioning themselves, they might end up completely empty handed.