Will Russia invade Ukraine (again)?

26 January 2021

Kat von Behr

(Image courtesy of Unsplash)

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of InQuire Media

Will the frozen conflict heat up again? Months after the initial movement of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine, there is still no definitive answer.

Talks between US and Russian officials have continued this week as fears over a Russian invasion of Ukraine continue to spread. Yet, a breakthrough does not seem any closer – and we should not expect one anytime soon. President Putin’s representatives are standing by his demand for a hard guarantee that Ukraine never be allowed to join NATO. The US has continued to reject this proposal, with US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman adding that they “will not allow anyone to slam closed NATO’s open-door policy”.

So, where does Ukraine, pushed to the sidelines during these negotiations, stand?

The ongoing war in the Donbas region of Ukraine has been at a stalemate for some time. Still, the recent escalation of fighting (provoked by the use of the Ukrainian military’s Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 UAV against military units from the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic) and Russian military build-up at the border have led to concerns that Russian forces will intervene to “defend Russian citizens” in Ukraine.

While they have been careful not to threaten invasion overtly, the Russian government has suggested that any further escalation could lead to severe consequences for Ukraine – making the most of this implication to try once again to prevent NATO encroachment into what they perceive as Russia’s rightful sphere of influence. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, went as far as to say “the security of the whole European continent” would be in danger should Russia’s demands on NATO not be met. Ultimately, President Putin wants a return to 1990s levels of NATO military presence, and what better way to win a freer hand in Eastern Europe than by deploying 100,0­00 troops to sites close to the Ukrainian border. Putin’s true motives will likely remain unclear until it is too late, but the acceptance of Ukraine into NATO would mark a complete rejection of the former USSR, a power that the President and many nationalistic Russians have much nostalgia for. ‘Losing’ Ukraine to the West could mean an admittance of Russia’s waning influence in former Soviet states.

Considering the US has repeatedly asserted that it will not let Moscow prevent Ukraine from associating with NATO, it seems highly unlikely that they will concede. And they have made clear that Russia will face huge sanctions should they try to invade. But that is not to say that President Biden’s administration is planning to help bring Ukraine into the alliance: they are unconvinced about expanding US military commitments and, more importantly, are afraid of the consequences of greater Russian hostility.

Experts cannot agree on what this means for Ukraine. The US claims to have information that Russia is attempting to conduct a false-flag operation to create a pretext for an invasion. At the same time, if Putin were to order military action, he would almost guarantee international intervention, effectively undoing his attempts to stop NATO from expanding eastwards. The US has already approved an additional $200m dollars worth of security support for Ukraine, the first shipment of which has already arrived, so while they remain uncertain about further increasing their military obligations, they have demonstrated a certain “commitment to Ukraine's sovereign right to self-defense".

What is clear is Russia’s capacity to start a military operation. While the consensus is that they would need more troops than presently deployed to take and hold territory in a total land invasion, Russian forces have surrounded Ukraine on three sides. Such a full-scale invasion could see Russia seizing two-thirds of Ukraine. Not to mention, Russia could still achieve a fair few of its potential military goals without a full attack.

Following Friday’s talks between the US and Russia, the impression seems to be that some of the tension has been relieved, creating some breathing room for further discussion. Despite this, Russia has continued to escalate the situation in Ukraine, propped up by disingenuous insistence that their military movements pose no threat to the formerly Soviet country.

The military build-up could be a misdirection, a last-ditch attempt to push through Putin’s NATO demands, but given the Russian President’s lack of transparency, an invasion of Ukraine would be neither surprising nor difficult. As the US and Russia continue their fruitless negotiations, Ukraine has certainly been left in the lurch, used as a pawn in the foreign relations of great powers , while suffering the corruption of its own public officials. The US and the rest of the NATO member states need to agree on their priorities and deal with the consequences. Either decide to appropriately help a country considered the poorest in Europe, or yield to Russia out of fear of a 21st century Cold War.