The return of the European left?

13 October 2021

Hyunseok Ryu

(Image courtesy of Unsplash)

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of InQuire Media

Ever since 2019, with the Labour Party’s massive defeat, it seemed like many left-wing parties, primarily those historically rooted in socialism or ideologies branched out from it, experienced a massive decline. Before the aforementioned event, in 2017 the Socialist Party (PS) of France experienced its most crushing defeat being relegated to less than 30 seats out of 577, while in Germany the Social Democratic Party (SPD) had even trailed the far-right AfD in polls. These were just a few examples of a debilitated left, and it seemed like Pasokification (the decline of social democracy) was in full swing.

However, fortunes have since changed. Though not universally across western Europe, the centre-left have begun a slow but steady incline in some countries, and in some have even obtained victories. Recently, the Norwegian Labour Party came first alongside other left-wing parties making it extremely likely that Norway will see the return of a left-wing government. In the latest German election, the SPD narrowly came first alongside the surging Greens, undoing 16 years of being the second-largest party in their parliament. In Portugal, the Socialist Party remains in government and maintains a strong lead against their liberal-conservative rivals the PSD. Their neighbour Spain also has a government led by the social democratic PSOE, and though they are polling lower than the conservative People’s Party, it’s a narrow gap.

In what might be the most major polling for the country we all reside in, the Labour Party has begun its steady incline in polls with some showing them being neck and neck with the Conservatives, at once in the lead, and if not close behind. According to Opinium Research (from 2 October) voting intention lies at 39% for the Conservatives and 35% for Labour. In the red wall, it’s gotten ever closer with a 1% gap. If an election were held at the point of this being written the Conservatives would lose 34 seats while labour would gain.

This resurgence is not occurring across the entirety of Europe, but it shows that at least in some countries the centre-left, and to some extent the left as a whole, still has the potential to return to power. An era of scepticism over the left’s potential is withering away.

Though not certain, recent events have likely highlighted the disparities of Europe. During the toughest COVID restrictions the question of students and workers having the right to the internet and said hardware to use them came into question. Furthermore, the pandemic saw many governments, even those who are conservative and prefer lower spending, injected billions into their economies to keep them sustainable. The fear of mounting debt was sidestepped for the sake of battling COVID.

And another opinion on this resurgence can be how the cycle for many ruling political parties has ended as issues crept up or exhaustion caught up. Germans have had enough of Merkel's 16-year chancellorship, while Britain’s Conservatives broke their signature promise of not hiking national insurance with 11 years of cutting welfare, and the Norwegians saw the dallying approach by the Norwegian Conservative Party in fighting climate change. Just like how many voters grew tired of social democracy, it seems that a lot of the centre-right and conservatism is beginning to experience a similar decline.

Nonetheless, this resurgence of social democracy is very different from previous victories. Regardless of whether one feels defeated or victorious at this resurgence of the left, the victorious social democrats will have quite the task on their hands. Europe is dominated by proportional representation systems and it won’t be just the social democrats governing. The Norwegian Labour Party will have to work with the Centre Party but that would be a minority government after the Socialist Left withdrew from negotiations, meaning like before it’ll have to compromise with significantly more radical and extreme left-wing parties. The SPD in Germany, on the other hand, will have to work with The Greens and Free Democratic Party, meaning centrist governance will likely be the default - eliminating hopes for undiluted centre-left governance.

This leaves an uncertain future and further speculation about whether this resurgence will last. The highlighting of inequality during COVID-19 likely won’t last, especially after the pandemic ends and, eventually, people might grow more concerned with economic growth rather than economic support. For the left, especially the traditional social democratic parties, to maintain their victories or cling to the gains they’ve made against their opponents they’ll need to prove they can’t just solve the problems highlighted during the pandemic but also lead their countries beyond them.

A social democratic or left-wing government that comes into power that seems like a repeat of previous ones will only demonstrate a parallel against the centre-right, not an indication of a new era, one that is post-pandemic. Indeed, an alternate approach to managing recovery from the pandemic and confronting a country’s issues can be appropriate and we’ll see if it’s especially true in Norway and Germany. Still, I can’t help but feel that in the most historic events of our era, the time is ripe for a refreshing new approach to governance.